Special update as Ex-Tropical Cyclone Hale moves into NZ
Hello Kia Ora I’m Philip Duncan happy New Year thank you for joining us for this special update we’ve cut our holidays a little short uh we want to do this video for you our regular videos don’t return until Wednesday of next week so this is a one-off but we want to track this storm because there are a lot of people asking where exactly it’s.
Going so let’s get into it here’s the satellite map it’s a pretty messy looking system it’s not a perfect looking storm and remember it was only a tropical Cyclone for about 18 hours so it was a short-lived storm but it’s going to redevelop and it already is right now into what we call an extra tropical storm so up in the tropics it’s.
All about the middle that’s where all the worst weather is when they become extra tropical it spreads out from the center by three or four hundred kilometers and that’s the reason why places further down the Eastern side of the island are exposed let’s have a look at the animated wind map now you can see how large this system actually is now.
The low in the middle here isn’t huge and it’s not perfectly defined it doesn’t have that perfect circular middle to it it’s all sort of stretched out but when you look at how large this whole system actually is you do start to make sense of why there are so many warnings and watches because this is quite a large system and it’s being fed.
With tropical air into one part of it here so quite a big system and being slowed down by high pressure which is parked over the Chatham Islands at the moment on the animated rain radar this is from metservice look at all this rain moving and heaviest Falls are in the bright blue so you can see Heavy Rain moving into parts of Northland Auckland.
Coromandel Peninsula and a little bit of Western Bay of Plenty mostly from about todong or Mount maunganui northwards and then the other burst of rain is about to come down the Eastern side of the North Island from Gisborne down to wairarapa you can see these rain Radars on the weather watch and Rural weather websites now here’s an interesting animation.
Three days of weather and six seconds that’s how long the animation is so it’s showing you the low coming in making landfall somewhere in the north here and then very quickly it moves through and clears Away by the end of Thursday so we’ve got a burst of rain and then it’s gone now last week we had that squash Zone event that’s when you’ve got high.
Pressure down here and low pressure up here and those windy nor’easters that we had for three days in a row around Auckland and coromandel lots of power Cuts flooding here and there as well this is different all sorts of wind directions as it comes in because it’s going around like that and it zips through quite fast it is not lingering.
For three days like that systemed in so let’s take a look at the rainfall this is the 24-hour rainfall map from this morning Tuesday at 7 A.M to Wednesday 7 A.M heaviest Falls are around east cape and Gisborne and also parts of coromandel peninsula also up here around whangarei down to Northern parts of Auckland pretty much in that same risk.
Zone but the heaviest rain is out over here we’re talking about 125 millimeters or so in the next 24 hours and then this is the next 24 hour map from Wednesday 7 A.M to Thursday 7 A.M and you can see that rain sliding down the Eastern side and clearing up here in the north so there’s a lot of rain is going to be falling along that.
Eastern side of the North Island you’ve already had quite a bit this summer which means there’s perhaps an increased risk of slips and flooding this may appear shows total rain accumulation for the next three days ahead and you’re seeing the biggest rainfall totals in the coromandel peninsula around 100 to 150 millimeters maybe up to 200 coming.
Through for there and then over on the Eastern side even more in this Blue Zone that is up to the 200 millimeter Mark or more so we could be seeing 250 millimeters that’s about two or three months worth of rain falling in a very short amount of time so the risk for slips and flooding mostly in the northern part of Auckland coromandel.
Peninsula Northern Western I have plenty east cape Gisborne Hawke’s Bay and maybe even a little bit of wired upper in there as well take a look at the wind Maps this is from predictwind.com we thank them so much for these maps that are now available on our website at weatherwatch.co.nz over here is ecmwf from Europe This is the GFS map from.
America both of them are pretty similar as it comes in tonight and then across Wednesday tracks down this is lunchtime Wednesday both of them pretty much in the same spot and then it clears away off the Eastern side of the north island now it might be a little bit hard for you to sort of track all of that and look at the times and the wind speeds as.
We’re watching this video but you can find these maps on our website under the maps and Radars and you’ll find Wind that’s where these are very good you can compare multiple models now a lot of people are asking me well which is the most accurate computer model because I don’t know which one to look at it’s a little bit like a World Cup in.
Sport these are two teams and both of them could win both of them might be accurate so really both of these scenarios or the multiple scenarios you might want to look at are all possible so to make sense of it all we’ve got the IBM forecast on our website and that crunches all that information and you can see it here at ruralweather.co.nz so.
If you find that all too confusing just go here and this is crunching all of the computer models and giving you one forecast for your local part of New Zealand so just quickly I’m going to go through four centers very quickly to show you the surge of wind coming through so here’s whangaparaoa north of Auckland coming in tonight gusts up to.
About 65 K’s an hour now that’s lowballing it add another 30 K’s an hour for the more exposed areas and you’re getting up to 100 K’s an hour so you can see the gusts coming in from the southeast then the low comes in it comes down and then as the load clears away tomorrow the winds swing back from the opposite side from the west and they.
Could get back up to around close to gale force and then it fades away here is Hare camping ground over in the coromandel peninsula where my family and I camped for many years including by the way on this day 26 years ago when Cyclone Drina hit and I was stuck looking after a caravan that was tied to a fence which doesn’t sound that safe.
But it was the 1990s that was okay but look at this wind gusts here hey 80k is an hour that’s intense so very windy in the coromandel peninsula this is just one Center but of course this is the whole way along the coromandel but look how quickly it eases as you go into Wednesday and if you run a campground and you’re stressed out about hearing me.
Talk like this well here’s the good news the winds drop away so you can go back to the coromandel peninsula once this has moved through we move down to Gisborne look at the surge coming up here again getting up to the gale force damaging gusts and then it drops away on Wednesday this computer model here is slightly aligning with the American one.
Which shows the low coming into Bay of Plenty rather than Auckland that’s the variation between the two systems by the way so the winds calm down and they surge back up again on Thursday although not as bad we’re only talking about 30k gusts that’s not too bad all and then we go down to Wellington it’s a different story in Wellington today you’ve got a.
Bit of an easterly but look at this southerlys all the way along here so a big gust of southerlys or a big surge of southerlys up to 70 K’s an hour and remember at another 30 K’s an hour for the more exposed places so you’re talking about 110k gusts in Wellington on Wednesday and then it gradually tapers off because high.
Pressure is rolling its way in so let’s now break this all down to the maps that you’re used to and we’ll run through it and then we’re done with the video it makes sense I hope so here we are for 4pm today low pressure moving in now it is moving in on a strange angle because usually they come in like this quite often not always but often they do move.
To the southeast this one’s doing the opposite it’s moving Southwest not sure if that’s the opposite Northwest would be but Southwest is close to the opposite anyway it’s not East is what I’m saying it’s moving West and so it’s going to be pulled in towards the north island now some models show it coming in around whangarei others show it around.
Warkworth others shot around the hauraki gulf and the tip of the coromandel peninsula and the GFS model also shows that coming in around whakatane in the Eastern Bay of Plenty that’s all about normal for an extra tropical storm that movement of anywhere in that zone that’s about about normal so very windy the rain is still driving into coromandel.
Gisborne east cape here this afternoon now by tonight notice how the low hasn’t moved it doesn’t keep on going down it’s curved back ends but like a bowling ball that sort of at the last minute turns so it slides in now like I say the computer modeling says it makes landfall anywhere between about whangarei and whakatane that is a very large area and it means.
If it comes into the north it makes landfall tonight if it comes into Bay of Plenty it makes landfall tomorrow landfall is almost irrelevant at this point in the tropics landfall is really important it’s where the middle of the storm is all the worst weather is around that when you can become extra tropical the worst of the wear that actually.
Pulls away see all the rain is out here not around the center so the actual middle of the lock the storm doesn’t really matter that much other than working out where the severe weather around it is going to be going so overnight tonight this month total here from the European model ecmwf shows that coming into Great Barrier Island around.
About midnight and then it comes into the haraki Gulf or coromandel Peninsula or even parts of Auckland now remember the middle is not the stormy Park the outer edges are but before it comes in this could be quite rough and windy which we are expecting to move through now as we go through Wednesday the center of that low moves down through.
The middle of the North Island pretty much all the computer modeling agrees on that although some of it pushes it further out towards Hawke’s Bay but you can see low pressure moving through and the worst of the rain and wind down on the bottom Southeastern quadrant we call it this part down here look at the top part not much in the way of rain pretty.
Dry out there so most of the Wind and Rain The gales are all down here and then very windy South West is returning to the north from Auckland northwards and a blustery afternoon in the north here with southwesters but that’s just your usual you know think of spring and Autumn it’s that kind of where they’re coming through and then very windy and.
Wet for Wired upper but that low pressure Zone moving through Hawke’s Bay so the winds ease as you saw on those rural weather graphs which you can use for every part of the country by the way you can see that calmness coming through for a Time on Wednesday by Wednesday night though the low is moving out to sea and back come the windy Southeast is.
For that part of the country still South to Southwest for the North and then on Thursday morning it’s cleared pretty much everywhere but the Eastern side of the North Island around Hawke’s Bay Mahia Peninsula and Gisborne and then by the end of Thursday bye-bye gone a little bit windy still around the Chatham Islands couple of showers Mahia.
And Wilder that’s really about it it’s clearing away it’s gone last week’s rough weather the severe weather from that squash Zone lasted three days this is lasting less than 48 hours so there’s some good news for you so there we go now we’ve got some met Service warnings rain warnings in the orange and we’ve got some wind watches and warnings as.
Well out there so keep an eye on that you can find all all the Met Service warnings the official ones on our website and you might notice them appearing in your forecast as well now that we’ve put that up for you so there we go that is it for tropical or x-tropical Cyclone hail moving in tonight and overnight or moving in on.
Wednesday depends exactly on where the middle of it comes in but like I say the severe weather is about two three hundred kilometers out from the middle so precisely where the eye not not the eye sorry the middle goes it has an eye when it’s in the tropics it doesn’t have an eye here it’s too cloudy but basically what you’re seeing is that.
Wind and rain moving in overnight tonight and across Wednesday and clearing on Thursday it is good to be back I will say that even though it is the middle of the holidays for me and our editor Sean but we are back again next Wednesday that’s when our regular videos return for 2023 so fingers crossed there’s no more.
Storms between now and then there is the potential for another tropical Cyclone next week but whether it hits New Zealand as a storm or not the jury is out but next Thursday the 19th of January could be the next low pressure Zone moving down from the tropics until then though we’re going to be seeing some high pressure that’s all from me.
We’ll see you again next week until then take care foreign